Neurology 2006 May 23; 66(10): 1539-44 (Read article online)

Kubo M, Kiyohara Y, Ninomiya T, Tanizaki Y, Yonemoto K, Doi Y, Hata J, Oishi Y, Shikata K, Iida M

BACKGROUND: There is scant information on secular trends in the incidence and survival of ischemic stroke subtypes. METHODS: The authors established three cohorts of Hisayama residents age > or =40 years in 1961 (1,618 subjects), 1974 (2,038 subjects), and 1988 (2,637 subjects). They followed up with each cohort for 12 years, comparing the incidence and survival rate of ischemic stroke subtypes. Morphologic examinations by autopsy or brain imaging was performed on most of the ischemic stroke cases in all cohorts. RESULTS: The age-standardized incidence of lacunar infarction significantly declined by 59% for men and by 28% for women from the first to the second cohort. It continued to decline by 41% for men, but the decline decelerated for women between the second and third cohort. The age-standardized incidence of atherothrombotic infarction tended to decline from the first to the second cohort, whereas it was sustained between the second and third cohort for both sexes. The age-standardized incidence of cardioembolic infarction was unchanged throughout the cohorts. In these cohorts, mean blood pressure levels among hypertensive subjects and the prevalence of current smoker decreased with time, though the prevalence of hypertension remained stable. The 5-year survival rate after lacunar infarction significantly improved among the cohorts, but those of atherothrombotic and cardioembolic infarction did not. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that, in the Japanese population, the incidence of lacunar infarction steadily declined for the last 40 years. The improvement of hypertension control and decreasing prevalence of smoking might be responsible for this trend.